Now that everyone acknowledges that Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, Charlie Cook has shifted ten distric rating, and boy are they huge.
Primary Aftermath: Race Ratings Change in Ten Districts: House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest updates for districts in which primaries were held on Tuesday, and explains what the conclusion of the Democratic presidential nomination fight may mean in several other districts across the country. We are changing our race ratings in ten districts where we believe Democratic chances of taking Republican-held seats have increased. With these changes, the GOP occupies 21 of the 27 seats now listed in the Toss Up column.
CA-04- OPEN (Doolittle)- Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CO-04- Marilyn Musgrave- Lean Republican to Toss Up
CT-04- Chris Shays- Lean Republican to Toss Up
IL-10- Mark Kirk- Lean Republican to Toss Up
NM-02- OPEN (Pearce)- Likely Republican to Lean Republican
NY-29- Randy Kuhl- Lean Republican to Toss Up
NC-08- Robin Hayes- Lean Republican to Toss Up
OH-01- Steve Chabot- Lean Republican to Toss Up
VA-02- Thelma Drake- Likely Republican to Lean Republican
WA-08- Dave Reichert- Lean Republican to Toss Up
Some like CO-04 and CT-04 were long overdue, but the one that stands out is OH-01. If we can take out someone like Chabot, we’ll have a VERY big night.
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I’m not surprised at OH-01. I’ve had that one as a tossup since Dreihaus jumped in the race. He’s a better candidate than we had in 2006 and we almost won that election.
The one state he’s being too conservative on is Florida. There is no excuse for FL-24 being the only race rated Lean Rep. FL-08, 21, 25 are all easily Lean Rep.
He also needs to move AL-05 from Tossup to Lean Dem or Likely dem. The repubs still can’t even decide on a candidate, all of whom are 3rd tier at best. We have a top tier candidate who won his primary overwhelmingly and is a very popular state legislator. I can’t see him winning by less than double-digits in November.
CO-04- Marilyn Musgrave- Lean Republican to Toss Up
CT-04- Chris Shays- Lean Republican to Toss Up
IL-10- Mark Kirk- Lean Republican to Toss Up
NY-29- Randy Kuhl- Lean Republican to Toss Up
NC-08- Robin Hayes- Lean Republican to Toss Up
VA-02- Thelma Drake- Likely Republican to Lean Republican
All match mine now. I have WA-08 Lean Dem, OH-01 Lean Rep, NM-02 Likely Rep, and CA-04 Lean Rep.
Mine hasn’t been updated in a couple weeks, I should probably bump OH-01 for sure.